Looking Ahead to 2026: What We Can Expect From the New Zealand Economy

As we wrap up the year it is a good moment to pause and look ahead. The New Zealand economy has been through a slow and often uncomfortable period and many businesses are still carrying the weight of higher costs and uncertainty. Yet the signs for 2026 point toward a year of steady recovery. Not a surge. Not a boom. Just a gradual strengthening that will reward those who stay focused and adaptive.

Growth is expected to pick up through the year as interest rates ease and confidence gradually rebuilds. Inflation pressures continue to soften which will give households and businesses more breathing-room. Export-linked sectors are positioned to perform steadily and our labour market is beginning to rebalance after several years of tightness. None of this signals an easy year ahead but it does indicate that the worst of the squeeze is easing.

Households are likely to become more willing to spend as borrowing costs come down. Businesses too will start shifting their attention from survival mode to forward-looking planning. Residential investment remains subdued but most other sectors should see moderate improvement. The government is focused on restoring fiscal balance which contributes to a more stable backdrop. While global conditions remain fragile New Zealand enters 2026 on firmer footing than in recent years.

So where does that place us this time next year? You can expect a business landscape that feels more confident than today but still deliberate. Companies will be looking for clarity and direction rather than rapid expansion. Growth will be earned through discipline more than speed. Exporters will continue to navigate a world full of moving parts and those who succeed will be the ones who stay agile. The economy will be recovering but not racing which means good advice will become more valuable than ever.

For leaders and advisors the priorities are clear. Productivity will matter more than ever as modest growth forces organisations to get smarter rather than simply bigger. Resilience remains a critical theme as global uncertainty is far from over. Workforce settings will continue to evolve and talent development will play a larger role in performance. And for those with an eye on long-term value this is an opportunity to embed sustainability purpose and impact more deeply into strategy.

If 2025 was a year of recalibration then 2026 looks set to be a year of steady progress. By next December most businesses should feel more settled and more forward-looking. The path will not be free of challenges but the direction of travel is encouraging. As long as we stay focused on capability improvement disciplined execution and thoughtful leadership we will be well placed for the next cycle of growth.

A fitting way to end the year is with a simple reflection. Recovery is not something we wait for. It’s something we build. And 2026 will reward the builders.